Peru have a better chance of winning the 2018 World Cup than England, Belgium, and Portugal, according to sports data company Gracenote. The Peruvian national team, who are currently ranked 11th in the world, have been granted a 5% chance of winning their first ever FIFA World Cup this summer, ahead of the Three Lions, who have been given a 4% chance.
The FIFA World Cup is arguably one of the easiest sporting events to predict a winner. Since its introduction in 1930, only eight different nations have won the tournament, with regular suspects Brazil, Germany, and Italy winning 13 of the 20 World Cup trophies between them.
With Italy missing out on this year’s edition, Brazil and Germany are perhaps the most obvious contenders, and indeed, this has been reflected in Gracenote’s data, with Brazil being given a 21% chance of lifting a record sixth World Cup trophy in Moscow.
2010 champions Spain are the second most likely winners with a 10% chance, followed by Germany (8%), Argentina (8%), France (6%), and Colombia (5%).
But this is where it gets interesting. According to Gracenote, there is a 47% chance that we will have a first-time winner this summer, which will be any nation except Germany, France, England, Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Spain. It has also been predicted that 10 of the last 16 participants will be from Europe, with South and Central America accounting for the other six.
Peru have been given a 68% chance of progressing from Group C (behind France – 69%), with a 22% chance of reaching the semi-finals. Colombia are also tipped to go far in the tournament with a 21% chance of reaching the final four. Of the other continents, African side Senegal have been given a 45% chance of progressing to the final 16, behind fellow Group H countries Colombia (77%) and Poland (50%).
Gareth Southgate’s England side have a 71% chance of reaching the knockout stages (equal with Belgium). Should the three lions progress to the final 16, they have been given a 41% chance of beating any of the Group H sides (Poland, Colombia, Senegal, Japan); however, their chances of progressing to the quarter-finals decrease dramatically to 18%, with a 9% chance of reaching the semis.
Gracenote’s calculations are based on 1 million simulations of World Cup matches, with points awarded for the current ranking of each team and the probability of a win, draw, or defeat.